NO-STAKES DECISIONS: ASK THE WATCH:
Based on whether the minute on the cellphone clock is even or odd
Yes corresponds to the right half of the watch face, where the second-hand falls between 1 and 30
No corresponds to the other half
LOW-STAKES DECISIONS: DELEGATE TO YOUR SQUAD
Outsource decision-making
One person only or ask them to present you with a joint recommendation
HIGH-STAKES DECISIONS: FOBO
Formulate the Question [Which of these four cars should I buy?]
Set Criteria to Frame Your Decision [based on values, less than 5 criteria]
Gather Data [is there âenough goodâ in each potential decision?]
Select Initial Front-Runner [all decisions are acceptable so no downside in selecting a favorite, most exciting, intuitively makes sense]
Eliminate Inferior Options [compared to front-runner; always choosing the better of the two options before you, repeat process until left with front-runner and a backup]
Memo of the rationale I used to build my case
Ask 5 people if still stuck
Weigh any new data against your original criteria
Venture capitalists shouldnât romanticize their decisions, neither should you. Investors look back at portfolios and compare performance of each company with assumptions they made at time of investment. You can revisit your decisions. Who gave you great advice? What would you have done differently?
Build your own anti-portfolio of bad decisions
What makes sense today may no longer work for you in a year
HIGH-STAKES DECISIONS: FOMO
Formulate the Question [âShould I interview for the job in California or Should I quit my job to launch an entrepreneurial venture?â]
Set Criteria to Frame Your Decision [keep requirements concise]
Five good reasons why I want to have or do this?
Can I afford this?
Can I make this choice, without sacrificing other, more important, goals? How else could I invest my time and energy???
Can I see a clear return on investment if I choose this option? Will I get any tangible or emotional value out of this????
Is this opportunity even available to me, or should I be focusing on other opportunities that are also attractive but far more realistic?
Gather Data: ask hard questions to self and others, remove emotion, reach out to people with this expertise [no more than a few]
Write it Down: the thoughts of others as well, then write down the conclusion on paper
Make a Preliminary Judgment
Check in with intuition to address Herd FOMO, not Aspirational FOMO
Invest time and capital in other peopleâs projects on a part-time basis Explore own entrepreneurial project and then apply what they learn back at their day job
10% Entrepreneur and 10% Activist is more sustainable